Trump’s comeback could slow global efforts to manage the climate crisis

The historic comeback by Donald Trump to the US Presidency, a country which is the world’s second largest source of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, after China, is a major potential setback for global efforts to combat climate change. Trump, whose climate scepticism is well known globally, adopted the mantra “drill baby drill,” while on the campaign trail. The implication is that he would remove any restrictions for drilling and use of fossil fuels in the US that have so far been justified on the basis of getting America to increase its share of renewable energy and, therefore, reduce emissions that are responsible for global warming.

In effect, Trump was openly denying, as he has done in the past, the scientific evidence that the climate change being experienced today is the result of human activities. This despite indisputable proof by no other than the highly respected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that most GHGs emission is as a result of use non-renewable fossil fuels, specifically petroleum products and coal.

A few days before he was sworn in as the 47th US President, Donald Trump denied that climate change had anything to with the unprecedented wild fires that devastated a large portion of the City of Los Angeles in California. The January 2025 fire reportedly killed at least 29 people and obliterated more than 10,000 buildings, most of them private homes. The Leader of the Free World attributed the tragedy to mismanagement of California water resources by politicians, most of whom are democrats.

Global anxiety over Trump's climate change stance

At the global level, Trump’s policies, include a threat to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement, the legally binding international treaty on climate change that was signed by 196 nations during 21st UN Climate Conference known as “CoP 21” held in Paris, France in 2015. Such a move could be a major hindrance to the achievement of the “Net Zero” goal.

The goal seeks to reduce GHGs emission to a level where a similar amount of what is emitted is prevented from entering the atmosphere. Reducing GHG emissions, technically referred to as climate change mitigation, is achievable through carbon capture by plants or preventing the GHGs generated - especially Carbon Dioxide (CO2) - from entering the atmosphere.

These combination of activities are referred to as sequestration. Increasing pathways for absorbing CO2, known as carbon sinks, requires measures that range from expanding the global forest cover, practising climate smart agriculture, to storing CO2 and other GHGs underground, among other possible measures.

Broken promises on climate funding

At the end of CoP 29, which was held in Baku, Azerbaijan in November 2024, developed countries pledged to increase their support to developing countries in the fight against climate change from US$100 billion to US$300 billion annually by 2030. The rationale for this support is the reality that developing countries, particularly those in Africa, produce negligible levels of GHGs but need support to adapt to the impact of global warming caused by developed countries.

As has been historically the case, the US is one of the countries expected to make the highest contribution to the fund. At the time of writing, there was serious doubt as to whether the US under Trump is going to honour the pledge made by his Country’s Government under Joe Biden, his predecessor.

As matters stand, most countries had not fulfilled their pledges to the climate change fund to meet the earlier lower target. It is, therefore, highly doubtful whether the target of US$300 billion annual contribution will be met. This means that developing countries, which bear the brunt of climate change, will not have sufficient funds to adequately adapt to its devastating impacts. The most vulnerable are Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which literary face the threat of extinction by rising sea levels caused by global warming. Left unchecked through global efforts, it has the potential to plunge most of them under water.

With the world facing so many catastrophic events and an increasing number of countries adopting isolationist policies, the impact of the second Trump presidency has only made the future more unpredictable. The fear is real that the fight against climate change might take the back burner as many western countries fight back perceived threats such as “invasion” by immigrants from the poor Global South for which, ironically, the climate crisis is a significant trigger.

The pressure has not been higher for the European Union, whose member countries have set high targets towards Net Zero, as well as China, the highest polluter. Working with other nations committed to the Net Zero target, these countries can rise up and fill the gap that could be left if President Trump makes good his threat of the US slowing down on the numerous efforts underway towards most of the world going green and clean.

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