Climate change threat to Kenyans' health

It is predicted that Kenya’s mean annual temperature will increase by between 0.8 and 1.50 C by the year 2030. The predictions also indicate that what are now regarded as cold nights will become very rare over the period 2030 to 2060.

With regard to rainfall, it is predicted that average annual rainfall will increase by between 2 and 9 mm by 2060. These predictions are recorded in a report that Kenya has submitted to the United Nations capturing the status of climate change and particularly levels of greenhouse gases that the country currently emits specifying the sectors from where these gases particularly carbon dioxide are likely to come from.

Kenya’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emission is negligible. However, the amount of greenhouse gases emitted in Kenya is likely to increase as the country continues to pursue its dream of becoming a rapidly industrialising middle income country by 2030 as per Vision 2030.
What do these changes in the country’s climate mean to human health? The answer it may seem is not very encouraging.

The disease that is most directly linked to climate change is malaria. Already the World Health Organisation and the Ministry of Health estimate that 20 million Kenyans, nearly half the population is at risk if malaria infection. In Kenya, there are an estimated 6.7 million new clinical cases and 4,000 deaths each year, making malaria one of the most serious infectious diseases in Kenya.

The predicted increased warming of the climate in Kenya is already causing malaria to spread in areas where mosquitoes have not been able to survive in the past. The problem with this type of new malaria zones is that people who live there have not developed the natural immunity similar that which people who live in areas where malaria is common possess. This is the so called highland malaria, spreads to areas above the altitude of 1,100 metres above sea level due to a warmer climate

The increase in incidence of two other diseases namely cholera and Hepatitis A has also been predicted to increase with climate change.  Dr. Andrew Githeko, a Chief Research Officer at the Kenya Medical Research Institute, who is leading a team of scientists to research on the effect of climate on bacteria that causes cholera says that cholera outbreaks will be more common with climate change. The cholera bacteria thrives in temperatures ranging from 25 to 30 degrees centigrade. “When the weather gets warmer, it creates a conducive environment for bacteria and viruses to multiply in food and water, causing disease,” Dr. Githeko was quoted by The Standard as saying in article published on April 2nd last year.  

He also warned that diseases like diarrhoea, cholera, Hepatitis A and E, are sensitive to climate change and variability, further warning that compromised water and food-handling habits especially during these soaring temperatures is fertile ground for more outbreaks.

Many will recall the outbreak of Chikungunya disease in Mandera County last year, a development which was attributed to heavy rains and warm weather. Chikungunya is spread by a type of mosquito known as Aedes, which different from the Anopheles mosquito that spreads malaria. The common aspect of most diseases that are expected to become more widespread as Kenya’s climate changes is that they are either vector borne in the case of malaria, chikungunya and Dengue Fever or water borne as is the case for cholera and Hepatitis A.

The threat that climate change poses to human health is an additional reason for Kenyans to take action at household level towards climate change adaptation and mitigation. A simple way to start is ensuring that 10 per cent of any land that one owns is covered with trees. The other is to replace all conventional light bulbs with energy saving ones and for households to adopt solar water heaters. This will contribute towards capturing more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by the planted trees and reducing emission of carbon dioxide by through reduced use of non-renewable energy for lighting and heating at household, institutional and industrial levels.


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