Achieving food security in a changing climate

One of the key pillars of Kenya’s President, H E Uhuru Kenyatta’ "Big Four" strategy aimed at securing his legacy is food security, the others being universal health, access to housing and manufacturing. Despite Kenya being an agricultural country, food shortages have been experienced on regular basis with some communities facing malnutrition and even famine that is in some areas severe enough to cause loss of human lives. This situation has often required emergency measures of an international scale.

It is estimated that 98 per cent of agricultural production in Kenya is rain fed. Therefore the leading cause of food insecurity is shortage of water due to drought. According to the National Climate Change Action Plan (2013 – 2017), droughts are expected to become more frequent with increasing global warming. Before the adverse effects of climate change started to be felt in the country, drought used to occur in cycles of 5 – 10 years. With climate change however, this frequency is predicted to increase with cycles reducing to as often as every three years.

The Government is aware about these changes and has put in place policies to respond to climate change and its impact on key climate sensitive sectors, particularly agriculture. This is why in 2017, it developed the Kenya Climate Smart Agriculture Strategy (2017 – 2026).

One may however ask: what is climate smart agriculture or CSA? The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) defines CSA as an approach to agriculture that helps to guide actions needed to transform and re-orient agricultural systems to effectively support development and ensure food security in a changing climate. It aims to achieve three main objectives: sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes; adapting and building resilience to climate change; and reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions, where possible.

The first two objectives of CSA are the most critical for Kenya. More than 75 per cent of agricultural production in the country is undertaken by small scale farmers. However, according to FAO, Kenyan farmers harvest about 1.7 tonnes of maize from one hectare of land. This is 20 per cent less that the global average and five times smaller than what farmers in North America achieve. Kenyan farmers produce less maize per hectare than Uganda’s, Zambia’s and Rwanda’s.

There are three main reasons why production in Kenya is so low. The first is the quality of inputs particularly fertiliser and seeds; the second is poor access to usable information about the most effective farming practices; and the third is poor access to fair markets.

Climate change has however introduced a fourth critical challenge. It is predicted that despite the fact that amount of rainfall in many parts of Kenya could increase, its onset, duration and distribution will change. What does this imply? Unless farmers receive accurate and timely information about onset of the rainy season, they will not be prepared to plant their crops at the best time so as to take advantage of the rains.

It is therefore imperative that farmers access quality inputs and information about the weather, well ahead of the predicted start of the rainy season. It should be noted that the rainy season might in future begin at very different times in different geographic regions. This therefore means that each county and if possible sub-county should have the ability to receive climate information and agricultural inputs at the appropriate time for agricultural production to be improved significantly enough for Kenya to achieve food security.

The Kenya CSA Strategy notes as follows: “The agriculture sector is a major contributor the economy of Kenya in terms of food security, employment creation, supply of agro-based industry raw materials and foreign exchange earnings. About 98 per cent of Kenya’s agricultural systems are rain-fed and highly susceptible to climate change and variability. This susceptibility is likely to jeopardize attainment of the sector contribution to the national economy.”

For President Kenyatta’s legacy of a food secure Kenya to be realised, policies aimed at enhancing the ability of small scale farmers to adapt to climate change must go hand in hand with those relating to provision of climate services. Weather information that is specific to each agricultural zone and in a form that farmers can use and apply is particularly crucial. Since the policies are in place, what remains to be seen is the extent to which they will be implemented. Therein lies the answer as to whether the food security pillar among the Big Four will stand in the course of the next five years.