Climate change and conflict

In Kenya, climate change is predicted to result in increased frequency of extreme events, particularly droughts and floods. It has been noted that droughts in the East and Horn of Africa region used to occur after every 10 years between the 1960s and the 1970s. This frequency has increased to the extent that drought started occurring after every five years during the 1990s and could become even more frequent in the future due to climate change. In addition, droughts and floods have become more severe and rainfall less predictable due to the phenomenon.

More than 80 per cent of Kenya’s land mass is categorised as arid and semi-arid. All counties in the North of Kenya are in this category. The only sustainable livelihood activity that has been possible there is pastoralism. Communities that live in this region are therefore very dependent on natural climate-sensitive resources namely water, pasture and livestock.

Conflict: a consequence resource scarcity

As competition for these resources intensifies there have been increased incidents of conflict because neighbouring communities are forced to encroach each other’s territories in search of water and pasture, particularly during severe drought.

Turkana County provides a characteristic example of the link between climate change and conflict. Two communities namely, Turkanas and Pokots occupy the vast semi-arid county. For centuries incidents of cattle rustling happened sporadically between periods of drought and rainy seasons. However, such conflicts did not degenerate into full-fledged clashes because traditional mechanisms for conflict resolution were still effective. More recently however, climate induced resource scarcity has caused conflict to become more widespread, sometimes involving cross border skirmishes triggered by livestock raids.

Climate related insecurity permeates most areas of pastoralists’ livelihoods. The need to escape conflict zones, particularly by women and children means that children cannot attend school at the height of these hostilities. Teachers, particularly those coming from non-native communities, are often reported to desert their schools for fear of attacks creating serious disruption of the operations of the affected schools and undermining education potential of these already marginalised communities.

Conflict and climate change adaptation

Due to the possibility that inter-tribal or inter-clan conflict is often attributed to cultural practices, conflict resolution has not generally featured as being important in enhancing the capacities of pastoralist communities to adapt to climate change.

A landmark study by social anthropologist Dado Wario and colleagues published in theJournal of Peace Research in 2012 showed a strong relationship between scarcity of natural resources, particularly water and pasture in the drylands of Northern Kenya and conflict. Titled: Climate change, violent conflict and local institutions in Kenya's drylands, the study linked conflict to natural resource scarcity, citing climate change as one of the drivers of conflict.

It also alluded to the role of violence, including that which is triggered by the negative impacts of climate change to increased vulnerability of affected communities. It noted: “Violence and insecurity reduce people’s capacity to cope with drought, to educate their children properly, to market their goods and to use land intensively and effectively.”

Interestingly, one of the case studies featured in the study showed that traditionally, conflict is highest during months of sustained rainfall contrary to popular belief that conflict has always escalated during droughts. The stress caused by drought traditionally resulted in better cooperation and harmony between communities since they used available resources equitably to ensure their survival. During sustained wet seasons, livestock recovers as water and pasture become abundant. As a result young energetic “warriors” who are needed to trek and graze animals to far off places during drought become idle. They are therefore available to be recruited in carrying out livestock raids.

With climate change however this traditional pattern appears to be changing with the result that conflict is now increasingly fuelled by prolonged scarcity because wet seasons are becoming shorter and shorter. Conflict under these circumstances demands different approaches to resolve.

Recognising conflict resolution as an adaptation strategy might be what is required so that traditional structures that ensured resources were equitably shared during period of scarcity can be combined with modern approaches to climate change adaptation. This would ensure more efficient and equitable usage of natural resources in a changing climate, leading to more shared benefits and sustainable livelihoods in the drylands.