Global climate change response might gain from US Democrats’ mid-term elections win

The declaration on June 1, 2017, by US President Donald Trump that the US would withdraw its commitment to the Paris Agreement seemed to confirm what many already suspected: that Trump might become the climate change denier in chief. Indeed, the leadership and rank and file supporters of the Republican Party are largely perceived as less supportive of efforts to counter the negative impacts of climate change than their counterparts in the Democratic Party.

This perception has spurred hope among many that the recent win by Democrats, who took more than 30 seats in Congress during the November 6 mid-term elections, might herald an era of reinstatement of climate change policies formulated by the Obama administration, which Trump and his key appointees reversed or watered down since his ascendancy to the Presidency.

According to an October 11, 2018 commentary by Randy Showstack in Earth and Space News, the win by Democrats signals the increased possibility for the enactment of various pieces of legislation to deal with climate change. These include those dealing with the carbon tax, caps for greenhouse gas emissions with a market for trading emissions allowances, energy or a more comprehensive approach to climate change issues.

While announcing the intended US pull-out from the Paris Agreement in June 2017, Trump said that the Agreement puts the US at a permanent disadvantage and would undermine the US economy. Democrats, who have always regarded themselves as the party of climate science, will be expected to increase efforts to counter the President’s assertion about the Paris Agreement and push for the return of global warming back on the Calendar of Congress.

"Trump's climate nihilism (that science-based claims about climate change are unfounded)  has provided an unprecedented opportunity for Democrats to occupy the centre and centre left on energy and climate, and I think they are doing so," commented Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate advisor.

Closer to home in Kenya, climate change policymakers might be more inclined to ask themselves whether the mid-term win by Democrats will in any way forestall Trump’s threat to pull the US out of the Paris Agreement.

The US is the second highest contributor of greenhouse gas emissions after China. Going by the “polluter-pays principle” a hallmark of both the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement, the US should be among the highest contributors to the Green Climate Fund (GCF), which has been set up as the formal mechanism by developed countries to support climate adaptation initiatives by least developed countries.

For now, however, it would serve the interests of poorer countries if the win by Democrats in the US translates into significant policy reforms about climate change.

A complete reversal by President Trump of the green policies formulated under President Obama, which were widely regarded as being progressive towards creating a healthier planet, can only realistically happen if this win by the Democrats triggers the momentum that would be required to threaten Trump's chances of winning a second term come 2020

 US political trends in the coming months will, therefore, be worth watching closely by members  of the global community who regard a concerted response to climate change by the 194 nations that are signatory to the Paris Agreements as an imperative to forestall the planet's near certain match towards what some have described as the most “uncertain future” as far as climate change goes. 

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