The climate change dimension in the Venezuela raid

 On the surface, the dramatic seizure of Venezuela’s President Nicholas Maduro and his wife on 3rd January 2026 to face drug-related charges in the United States might appear a straightforward issue. Looked at from one of the most hotly debated geopolitical subjects today - the dominance of China in Rare Earth Elements (REEs) extraction and value chains, the events in Venezuela are not isolated. They are part of an emerging frontier around which two global challenges converge: energy scarcity and the climate crisis.

With the rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and its increasing role in virtually all aspects of life, demand for AI is already driving a huge appetite for electricity for cooling energy-thirsty data centres around the world. This is happening at a time when there is immense pressure pushing countries to shift power generation from non-renewable fossil fuels, of which oil is the main one, to renewable alternatives.

In the transport sector, which is one of the most significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions, the shift is towards Electric Vehicles (EVs). The manufacture of motors that run EVs relies heavily on REEs. This skewed supply system is an additional threat to global peace.

With China having a monopoly, the Western World is understandably anxious. The situation is not helped by the fact that REEs constitute key ingredients in the manufacture of semiconductors needed for making a wide range of products from computers to sophisticated military and defence systems.

To compound the dilemma facing the West even further, most REEs are found in countries in the global South, where China already has a firmer foothold than any other country. It, therefore, becomes clear why radical measures, such as what the world has witnessed in Venezuela, might become more common.

As demand for electrical power increases exponentially, countries may resort to non-renewable fossil fuels that they have already abandoned to meet their climate mitigation targets. This means that gains so far made on that front may be rolled back. Even more vexing is how the West will counter China’s dominance in the global supply and control of REEs.

Therein lie possible reasons for increasing disregard for the sovereignty of weaker counterparts as stronger countries move to secure reserves of oil and other non-renewable polluting fuels such as coal.  They know only too well that AI access and dominance may push the efforts and resources for addressing the increasing threat of climate change to the back burner as nations decide between allowing runaway global warming and playing catch-up in the AI race.

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